Regular readers of this newsletter have no doubt noticed that from time to time we show a bit of frustration with dodgy news pieces. And a lot of our readers share our wondering if the news writers are really uninformed or if they are trying to sell us something. Our belief is that, as a mindful consumer of news, it pays to be on guard and take notice when a ‘news’ piece crosses the line into opinion. Opinion pieces do have their value of course, but it is important to question ‘what does this writer want me to know?’, and ‘why do they want me to know it?’ Are they sharing scholarly information or are they merely contributing to a narrative?

Our friend Will Hepburn of Hepburn Capital points to a recent and good example from the usually reliable Wall Street Journal (6/10/2019, Pg. B-1, By Avantika Chilkoti and Daniel Kruger):

All 50 Economists in Survey Missed Predicting Current Low Bond Yields.
‘Yield Dive Catches Forecasters Off Guard’

“The [rapid and unexpected] drop in 10-year Treasury yields… [to] 2.085%, down from 3.23% in… November… biggest… decline since 2012…Few analysts anticipated the rush into government debt.  In October, when yields on the 10-year Treasury were near their peak of around 3.2%, none of the more than 50 respondents in The Wall Street Journal’s monthly survey of economists predicted yields would fall below 2.75% by June 2019.  The average forecast was 3.39%… JPMorgan Chase [and other banks recently] revised… year-end prediction for the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.75% from 2.9%…”

Will goes on to say:

“I just can’t stress enough why you should not invest based upon news stories, even from the much-respected Wall Street Journal, especially opinion or forecast type articles.  No one knows the future.  No one!  Especially economists and journalists.

Only invest upon what the prices are telling you right now.  Prices don’t lie, and they don’t make mistakes 50 out of 50 times like this group of experts did.”

So, our advice for today is, put down the paper, turn off the news and enjoy your Independence Day Weekend.

Ron’s Market Minute – Insanity?

On Tuesday morning, as I noted that all major indexes were a bit lower, I also saw a headline pop up that suggested ‘renewed trade fears’ were causing negative market movements. But earlier, on Monday, the market moved higher on ‘trade relief’. How is it that Monday markets move up because of trade relief and Tuesday they move down on renewed fears?  I will repeat myself – Listening to the financial media can be a really bad idea. 

Look at the charts. Money is moving into US Treasuries here and globally. Trade tiffs are everywhere. Gold recently surged to highs not seen in six years. Yet despite all of the negativity, the S&P Index* rose on Tuesday to close at a fresh all-time high. Think about that as you enjoy your Holiday. Imagine what might happen if money actually began rotating from treasuries to equities all around the globe. 

I’ve thought about that – and although I don’t expect markets to move up in a straight line, I’m excited about the possibilities of many more new highs over the next twelve months. Just my opinion of course, still the evidence seems to support it.  

Ronald P. Denk, CFP®
Investment Advisor
Denk Strategic Wealth Partners
10000 N. 31st Avenue, Suite C-262
Phoenix, AZ 85051
Phone (602) 252-8700
Fax (602) 252-8701
Toll-Free (877) The-Denk
www.denkinvest.com

This weekly article reflects news, commentary, opinions, viewpoints, analyses and other information developed by Denk Strategic Wealth Partners and/or select but unaffiliated third parties. DSWP provides Market Information for illustrative and informational purposes only. If you wish to receive this weekly commentary by email please contact us at 602-252-8700 or by e-mail at lindaw[@]denkinvest.com. If you are receiving this commentary via email and would prefer not to please let us know either by email or phone.

Ronald Denk is an Advisory Representative offering services through Denk Strategic Wealth Partners, A Registered Investment Advisor. He is also a Registered Representative, offering investments through Lincoln Financial Securities Corporation, Member FINRA/SIPC.

Denk Strategic Wealth Partners is not affiliated with Lincoln Financial Securities Corporation. Information in this commentary is the sole opinion of Denk Strategic Wealth Partners. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. All market related investments involve various types of risk, which include but are not restricted to, credit risk, interest rate risk, volatility, going concern risk, and market risk.

The Update provides information of a general nature regarding legislative or other developments. None of the information contained herein is intended as legal advice or opinions relative to specific matters, facts, situations or issues. Additional facts, information or future developments may affect the subjects addressed in this document. You should consult with an attorney, accountant or DSWP planner about your particular circumstances before acting on any of this information because it may not be applicable to your situation.

Lincoln Financial Securities and Denk Strategic Wealth Partners and their representatives do not offer tax advice. Please see your tax professional regarding your individual needs.

*The indices are representative of domestic markets and include the average performance of groups of widely held common stocks. Individuals cannot invest directly in any index and unlike investments, indices do not incur management fees, charges, or expenses, therefore specific index returns will be higher. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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