Financial Advice, Planning and Guidance.

The best time to plant an oak tree was thirty years ago.
The second best time is today.

Reaching Your Financial Goals

Our Consultative Approach is a time-proven method that focuses on your needs, your goals and your priorities. Isn’t that a better idea?
Learn More

Financial Advice and Strategies

Active money management is more than just a good idea: it is a responsibility. Are we the right partner for your retirement goals?Learn More

Planning. It's Really Not So Complicated

When you finally do figure out what to do with the rest of your life…you’ll probably want the rest of your life to start immediately. How about today?Learn More

Guidance: In Every Client Relationship.

At Denk Strategic Wealth Partners, our insight offers the ‘How’ and the ‘Where’…but only after your vision tells us the ‘Why’.Learn More

Weekly eLetter 7/12/2019 — The End of the Business Cycle?

“The Business Cycle is Overstretched.”

“The U.S. Has Slipped Into the Late Stages of the Business Cycle.”

Headlines such as those have been recurring for going on two years. Good forecasting or Chicken Little-isms?

“The business cycle, also known as the economic cycle or trade cycle, is the downward and upward movement of gross domestic product around its long-term growth trend. The length of a business cycle is the period of time containing a single boom and contraction in sequence.” – Wikipedia

The current phase is called the Expansion Phase. It’s where GDP, the markets and the economy in general are growing. A quick scan of our DSWP calendar shows that the current ‘cycle’ is now on its 3,691st day. It surpassed the old longevity record on July 1st. It has lasted longer than the Beatles were together as a band and longer than Seinfeld’s run as a sitcom. Chaucer famously said “All good things must come to an end.” So, it’s gotta be finished soon, right? Well, maybe. But why?

One of the problems with the cycles theory is that one can only detect the final stage (Recession) after it has already begun. So, predictions are made about ‘impending’ recessions. Gurus point to various things from inverted yield curves to the ‘irrational exuberance’ of investors. Generally, though, the thought is that markets overheat, bubbles of some kind get created and it all comes crashing down. On the other hand (yes, our two-handed economist is always in attendance) absent overheating and the existence of bubbles what precisely is there to come crashing down? And if the economy and the markets are doing well should we really expect them to success themselves into a coma?

Those with a keen sense of the obvious might ask “How can you call it a cycle if it has not ‘cycled’? And if it hasn’t yet, why would it?

-read more …